- Daniel Brown
- BBC Mundo correspondent in Colombia
On May 29, two-thirds of Colombians voted for change; The split with the ruling political class for centuries. 14 million people said “no more”.
But they voted for two kinds of change: an ambition, a promise Gustavo Pedro, Who wants to be the first left-wing president of the country; And a practical one, proposed Rodolfo HernandezAn independent, non-partisan candidate who is obsessed with fighting corruption.
Both are enemies of traditional politics, they are “unusually structured” and broken talk.
But the economist and former guerrilla Pedro, who faces each other for the presidency this Sunday, and engineer and construction magnate Hernandez did not share forms or diagnoses or political plans.
Both are blaming the other. “Continuator“. And is considered”.Real change“.
“An organization they have run for years and it has not worked for the majority; change is Colombia’s passion and struggle,” Pedro said this week.
Hernandez said: “The choice is easy: always vote for someone who is controlled by the same people or who is not controlled by anyone.”
Pedro is running for president for the third time. It takes 40 years to create a political framework to make history. He started out as a guerrilla. He later became a successful senator and the controversial mayor of Bogot. The rejection of a large section of the population is against him.
Rodolfo Hernandez was not known in practice nationally until six months ago. But on his land, “engineer” Santander has been building a construction empire for years. He was the mayor of the capital Bukaramanga. Also, in the “beautiful city” his main card, to which he was somewhat successful, was “eradicating corruption.” His ignorance of the state is playing against him and on July 21 he was summoned to a trial on, precisely, corruption.
They admit one more thing: they are accused of being “populists.” Experts Considerஆனா Petro Anti-oligarchy Nationalist populist; Already HernandezA politically anti-neoliberal populist.
To win, both Pedro and Hernandez had to associate themselves with members of the infamous political class, although they refused. During the dirty and frantic campaign for the second round, the two men’s speeches were contradicted by their own actions, which are reflected in old and recent files released by the media. Not much is said about the shows.
Revealed on May 29, one of the people bored by their political class can go down in history as the slogan for freedom. But it can also be an unnoticed cry.
Two changes: one ambitious and one practical
Pedro and Hernandez went to the second round thanks to their proposals for change, but during these three weeks the differences between them became clear every day.
From Pedro’s change Background And long-term. From Hernandez Patterns And focused on corruption.
Although he has stated that he will not run in the re-election, Pedro believes that the only way to achieve his goals is to have more governments, including deeper reforms in complex areas such as land tenure (which he wants to accumulate), health and pensions (which he wants to separate from the private sector) and the country’s production model. (He wants to go from extraction to industry).
Hernandez, on the other hand, did not propose a temporary term beyond the four-year term of the 77-year-old president. His main cards are to put an end to corruption, reduce bureaucracy, close embassies and consulates and merge ministries through strict monitoring systems for government concessions and contracts. In the economic sector, he believes, by eliminating “barriers and predatory employment”, competition and growth will be created and more investment will be made in the social sector by reducing public spending.
Idealist Pedro proposes to make major reforms in almost all subjects. Strict Hernandez wants things to work out the way they should.
“Petro seeks a cultural change and a state that takes strong action to ensure equality,” says political scientist Mónica Pachón. “A larger state, with greater guarantees, will provide a wider range of services; this necessarily means increasing state spending and bureaucracy.”
According to a professor at the Universidad de los Andes, Rodolfo Hernandez is the exact opposite: “People can rise and prosper without hindrance; a humble state, but above all without efficiency and bureaucracy.”
Political scientist Gustavo Duncan, who wrote about the types of people that both populists “discover”, adds: “All populists base their speech on change and the notion of an imaginary, ideal people.“.
“Pedro discovered a secluded city that seeks to stop being poor through subsidies and political participation, while Hernandez discovered a barbaric and hard-working city that feared they could steal or earn what they earned. Work.”
“The Petro thing is ambitious, which is why it’s more likely to go wrong, and the Hernandez thing is more dangerous, but still achievable for that reason,” the researcher says.
How much change is possible
Although Pedro’s coalition will have a much larger Caucasus (20 senators and 28 delegates) than Hernandez (0 senators and two delegates), whoever wins will have to face a fragmented Congress that will have to negotiate with other currents.
Those talks, seen during the campaign for the second round, involve traditional politicians who create much rejection. If it is difficult to stay away from the political class in the campaign, it will be even more so in government.
With the exception of Congress, both will have strong opposing weights: Banco de la República, Media, Courts, State Regulatory Agencies and Business Associations.
Until now, Colombia’s deeply entrenched institutionalism has prevented drastic changes in the state and prevented the re-election of prominent politicians like Alvaro Eurie. Both Pedro and Hernandez have to deal with that company.
This is compounded by the fact that the cry for change includes various demands ranging from economic and democratic rights to social and cultural rights. It will take more than four years to end corruption, inequality and the remnants of war.
“That’s populism,” Duncan said. “In Super promises That fact must be taken into account. ”
Bachon agrees: “The usual thing is that politicians do not keep their promises because everyone in the campaign sells a vision of what they believe is the best model.”
“The problem with the current Colombian case is that both campaigns have the same status: Whoever comes to power will have to face hostility and mistreatment in the opposition“, Pachon predicts.
In 2019 and 2021, millions of Colombians protested. They all wanted changes, but different changes. The demands are many, varied and, in some cases, contradictory. That is why it is difficult to imagine a president who, no matter who wins, will not reactivate the opposition of those whose demands are not satisfied.
That does not mean that 14 million Colombians have voted for change. Whoever wins, those who wait four years without fear are few and far between in Colombia.
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