Why is Victor Pote’s return so important to Putin? (analysis)

(CNN) — It’s a very disproportionate trade at a very unlikely time, but why the trade of an American basketball star for a Russian arms dealer happened is a pressing issue right now.

At first glance, Brittney Griner and Victor Baut have been accused of a ridiculously different set of crimes. Kreiner was sentenced to prison in a Russian penal colony for possession of one gram of cannabis oil. Boute is said to be the most prolific arms dealer in decades, fueling conflicts in Africa and beyond. More specifically, a US court charged him with conspiracy to murder Americans.

But circumstances and political pressures from both sides changed this imbalance. Based on his claims of innocence in the lead-up to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and his brazen use as a geopolitical pawn, Griner has placed the spotlight on the Americans, forcing the Biden administration to open negotiations with the Kremlin at an awkward moment in history. Russian relations since at least the end of the Cold War.

Bot’s immense importance to Russia has always been a great mystery. How could a man who would spend decades trying to free himself at any level they could, and who was, as he claimed, a naive, hapless pilot and world trader, be so valuable to Moscow? Who is this who denies everything?

I interviewed Bot after months of negotiations while he was in prison in Bangkok in 2009. He is a chatty, charming polyglot and can chat animatedly about a list of political figures with whom he has personal ties worldwide.

I have seen bot videos from the Congo and all over Africa where he was very close to the conflicts in the area.

Several analysts and UN investigations have accused him of a proliferation of small arms on the continent in the 1990s and early 2000s, which he denies. He was even accused of arming Al Qaeda, which he denied. There were some things he wasn’t accused of and some things he didn’t deny. He became a sort of “check man” and was the focus of the film “Lord of War” starring Nicolas Cage.

That’s the story of his career: fame as the man known as the “Merchant of Death.” The reason he spent 14 years in prison and was extradited to the US was a complex operation by the US Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA), in which he agreed to supply US agents posing as Colombian terrorists. With weapons, weapons in action to kill Americans. It’s strange that after all the crimes Bode was accused of, the only one he was jailed for was conspiracy, conspiracy, not an act.

Victor Bott arrives at a criminal court in Bangkok on October 5, 2010. (Credit: NICOLAS ASFOURI/AFP via Getty Images)

It is true that he is a pilot and a businessman. He was a military translator with a Soviet past. But there are allegations that he worked for Russian intelligence and became an asset in supplying weapons around the world to bolster Moscow’s geopolitical goals. He is also said to have worked with Russian officials close to current President Vladimir Putin. This may explain the intensity with which Americans sought him out. He was never a nobody.

There was always an eerie mystique about Baut and his environment. Yes, he is innocent of everything, he said. But, yes, he had an interesting career. It’s usually a blink of an eye when someone knows there’s more to a story than meets the eye.

The biggest surprise now is how this exchange took place during the Russian invasion and brutality of Ukraine. That says two things: Moscow and Washington are capable of doing business, even if Russian bombs kill innocent Ukrainian civilians, and the US provides Ukraine with weapons that kill Russian soldiers; Nuclear forces can work on other thorny issues while the bullets fly. This is good for all the inhabitants of the planet. It means that a few cool heads prevail and fundamental interests take precedence.

It also shows some weakness on Putin’s part. At a time when he is unleashing his nuclear rhetoric against the West, he is also agreeing to a high-level diplomatic deal to regain enormous and complex importance to Russian elites, the intelligence community and national pride.

It is likely that many ordinary Russians have heard of it, and he is of legendary importance to the Russian elite. Moscow is not someone to “leave behind” the ugly slogan of the Russian invasion, with hundreds of dead soldiers scattered across the battlefield.

These are the people Putin now wants to praise himself. The deal may also have been self-interested: many believe that Bout had close ties to members of the Russian elite close to Putin during his tenure in Africa (though Bout has denied this). Is this why America spent so much time and money to stop him? Did they think I would talk? We will never know.

Yes, it’s a victory for Putin, but it also exposes his weakness and his need to keep the military elite he depends on happy.