Hong Kong markets are down more than 2% as investors digest private surveys of economic activity

Chinese real estate stocks fell on Monday, led by Country Garden shares, which tumbled to their lowest in more than eight months as debt concerns for Chinese real estate developers renewed.

Shares of Hong Kong-listed Country Garden fell nearly 7%, their lowest since early November. Its real estate arm, Country Garden Services, fell more than 15%.

JP Morgan has cut both companies below weight, and cut its price target for Country Garden and its real estate services listing by more than half. The bank’s analysts also warned that unless the Chinese government provides more policy support, liquidity concerns are likely to remain.

The Hang Seng Main Property Index, a measure of Chinese property meters listed in Hong Kong, fell more than 6%, a weaker performance than the Hang Seng Index, which fell about 2.5%.

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– Clement Tan

Singapore consumer price index 4.5% increase year on year in June, recording the slowest inflation rate since February 2022.

That’s just below the 4.55% expected by economists polled by Reuters, and also down from May’s 5.1%.

Singapore’s core inflation rate – which excludes accommodation and private transport prices – came in at 4.2%, down from 4.7% in May.

– Lim Hwi Ji

China is ramping up measures aimed at boosting its economy ahead of a key political bureau meeting this week that will review the country’s economic performance in the first half.

Last week, the authorities announced a series of pledges targeting specific sectors or intended to reassure private and foreign investors of a more favorable investment environment – but they were quite broad measures, with no specifics.

This is what we know so far. Read more here.

– Clement Tan

International investment firms have changed their forecasts for China’s GDP nearly every month so far this year, with JPMorgan making six revisions since January.

The US investment bank recently cut its forecast for Chinese GDP in July to 5%, down from 5.5% previously. That came along with cuts from Citi and Morgan Stanley this month to 5%.

Read the full story here.

– Evelyn Cheng

Malaysia’s inflation rate came in at 2.4% for June, the fourth consecutive month of decline and the lowest point since April 2022’s figure of 2.3%.

The country’s inflation rate has been on a downward trend since August 2022, experiencing eight months of decline and two months where the inflation rate remained flat.

Statistics Malaysia said inflation in June was mainly driven by higher prices for restaurants and hotels, as well as increases in food and non-alcoholic beverages.

– Lim Hwi Ji

Japanese business It expanded for the seventh consecutive monthaccording to flash estimates by Bank au Jibun.

The country’s composite PMI settled at 52.1 for the month of July, unchanged from the previous month.

The services PMI fell slightly to 53.9 from 54 in June, while manufacturing activity remained in contraction territory, with the PMI falling to 49.4 from 49.8.

– Lim Hwi Ji

Business activity in Australia’s private sector fell for the first time since March, mainly due to a contraction in services activity.

according to Flash estimates From Juno Bank, the composite PMI fell to 48.3, down from 50.1 in June.

The Services PMI fell below the 50 mark, no change to 48, down from 50.1 in June. In contrast, manufacturing activity recorded a soft contraction of 49.6 compared to 48.2 in June.

A PMI above 50 represents expansion in the sector, while a PMI reading below 50 represents contraction.

– Lim Hwi Ji

New Zealand’s trade surplus narrowed to just NZ$9 million ($5.43 million) in June, down from the revised figure of NZ$52 million in the previous month.

On a yearly basis, exports of goods rose 1.3% to $6.31 billion in June, while imports fell 14% to $6.3 billion.

the State Statistics Department He said that the rise in exports was mainly due to the increase in dairy products, while the decrease in petroleum products mainly contributed to the decline in imports.

– Lim Hwi Ji

Bank of America believes that stocks of major oil companies in Europe are “close to the bullish,” pointing to the start of the earnings season this week as the inflection point.

The Wall Street bank has called its future earnings “Big Oil’s best,” and it expects it to rise 30% over the next 12 months.

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– Ganesh Rao

Some sectors of Chinese stocks are seeing fundamentals shift in their favour.

Profits pass into industries, consumer goods and basic commodities – and away from materials and energy, according to HSBC.

Investors may also get some answers about macro policy in the coming days with a gathering of Chinese leaders, called the Politburo, scheduled for the end of the month.

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– Evelyn Cheng

Andrew Garthwaite, global equity analyst at Credit Suisse, said that a number of market indicators indicate that the broad rally in the market may hit a snag later this year.

“After a 3-month supply, we’d be more cautious because: 1. Markets always reach new lows in a recession (on average 11 months after it started),” Andrew Garthwaite, the firm’s global equity analyst, told clients in a note on Friday.

“We also fear that wage growth will be more flat (meaning inflation for basic services in the US will pick up, and then the degree of price cuts that the market is cutting won’t materialize in 2024 unless there is a recession),” Garthwaite said.

– Sarah Maine

Early returns for this earnings season are slightly below average, according to FactSet’s John Potters.

Here are some key stats from Butters’ note summarizing the first full week of the second quarter earnings season:

• Earnings per share surprise: 75% of S&P 500 companies report a positive surprise, which is lower than the 5-year average of 77%.
• Earnings estimates: S&P 500 companies beat estimates for EPS of 6.4% overall, which is below the 5-year average of 8.4%.
• Looking ahead: The 2023 earnings decline for the S&P 500 is -9.0%, using the “blended” FactSet method that combines achieved and forecast results. This marks the largest drop in earnings reported by the index since the pandemic affected the second quarter of 2020 (-31.6%).

– Jesse Pound

Come on Barbie, let’s go Mattel?

Analysts are watching the toy maker’s shares closely in the run-up to this weekend’s highly anticipated premiere of the movie based on the popular doll. It’s an important moment for Mattel, as the company tries to prove it has the ability to turn its intellectual property into blockbusters. Analysts are also watching to see if other companies, including movie theaters and retailers, can ride the rising hot pink tide.

CNBC Pro subscribers can see some of the stocks Wall Street is watching for trends related to the movie here.

– Alex Haring

Regional banks were higher in pre-market trading on Friday, with the S&P SBDR Regional Banking ETF (KRE) up more than 9% since Monday.

This puts KRE on pace for its best week in more than two years, when the ETF gained 9.78% for the week ending Jan. 8, 2021.

Western Alliance, PacWest, and Citizens Financial have jumped so far this week with gains of nearly 25%, 24%, and 13%, respectively. KRE would need to end the week up over 9.06% to achieve the January 8 figure.

– Brian Evans, Gina Francola