Inflation data, JPMorgan and Delta earnings, and more to watch this week

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Second quarter earnings season kicks off this week as several major US banks prepare to report. Investors and economists alike will be watching the latest inflation data closely.

Citigroup
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Wells Fargo

The earnings highlights will be this week, all on Friday morning.

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Conagra Brands
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Delta Airlines
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PepsiCo

He is also due to report on Thursday, following

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United Health Group

Friday.

The most important economic release of the week will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index for June on Wednesday. The consensus estimate of economists calls for a 3% increase in the core consumer price index from a year earlier, which would be a point lower than it was in May. Core CPI is expected to rise 5% year-on-year, 0.3 percentage points lower than the previous month. Both will have the slowest inflation rates since 2021. The BLS also releases the producer price index for June on Thursday.

Other data released this week will include a pair of sentiment indicators. On Tuesday, the National Federation of Independent Business will release its Small Business Optimism Index for June. On Friday, the University of Michigan released its Consumer Sentiment Index for July.

Monday 7/10

Federal Reserve May Consumer Credit Reports. Total consumer credit rose at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.7% in April to a record $4.86 trillion. Revolving credit, particularly credit card debt, jumped 13.1%, while non-revolving credit, such as mortgages and auto loans, rose 3.2%.

Tue 7/11

President Joe Biden is attending The 74th NATO Summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, which lasts for two days.

The National Union of independent businesses topped the Small Business Optimism Index for June. The consensus estimate is for a reading of 89.9, slightly higher than May’s number. The index remains steady near a decade low, as supply chain disruptions and labor shortages — even as some eased in the past year — continue to hurt small businesses.

Wed 7/12

Labour Office The stat releases the Consumer Price Index for June. Economists expect the CPI to rise 3.1% year over year, almost a full percentage point lower than it was in May. The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is expected to rise 5%, three-tenths of a percentage point lower than previously. The CPI is at its lowest level since March 2021, and the core CPI since November 2021.

Bank of Canada announces its decision on monetary policy. Traders are pricing in the two-in-three chance that the central bank will raise its main short-term interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point, to 5%. The Bank of Canada started this hiking cycle in the same month as the FOMC, March 2022, and raised interest rates nine times, taking them from 0.25% to 4.75%.

Thursday 7/13

sentas,

Conagra Brands
And

Delta Airlines, Fastinal and PepsiCo release quarterly results.

bls versions Producer price index for the month of June. The PPI is expected to have increased by a slight 0.4% year-on-year basis, while the core PPI is expected to have increased by 2.5%. This compared to gains of 1.1% and 2.8%, respectively, in May. The PPI is at its lowest level since late 2020, and the core PPI since early 2021.

Ministry of Labor Initial jobless claims reports for the week ending July 8th. Claims averaged 255,000 in June, the most since late 2021, in a sign that the hot job market may cool off.

Friday 14/7

Second quarter earnings season It started with three of the biggest banks – Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, and Wells Fargo. S&P 500 earnings are expected to decline 6.8% year over year. This represents the largest decline since the sharp drop of 31.6 percent in the second quarter of 2020.

BlackRock, State Street and UnitedHealth Group report earnings.

University of Michigan The Consumer Confidence Index for July is released. The consensus is at a reading of 65.8, slightly higher than the June reading. Consumer expectations for inflation for the coming year were 3.3% in June, the lowest in more than two years.

write to Nicholas Jasinski at [email protected]