Oil rises as the markets are weighed down by the US debt deal, and the possibility of raising interest rates

HOUSTON (Reuters) – Oil prices rose in volatile trading on Monday, as markets weighed down on a tentative deal for a U.S. debt ceiling that would avert a default by the world’s largest oil consumer in exchange for more Federal Reserve interest rate hikes that could curb demand. on energy. .

Brent crude futures rose 12 cents, or 0.2%, to $77.07 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude rose 25 cents, or 0.3%, at $72.92 a barrel.

Both parameters fluctuated between positive and negative territory. Trade eased on Monday due to public holidays in the United Kingdom and the United States.

“Debt deal euphoria is fading as concern mounts of another Fed rate hike in June,” brokerage Liquidity Energy LLC wrote in a note.

US President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy reached an agreement over the weekend to suspend the $31.4 trillion debt ceiling and maximum government spending for the next two years. Both leaders expressed confidence that both Democratic and Republican lawmakers would support the deal.

However, analysts saw any increase in oil prices as short-lived.

Markets are now pricing in a roughly 50-50 chance that the Fed will raise interest rates by another 25 basis points at its June 13-14 meeting, up from the 8.3% chance projected a month ago, according to CME’s FedWatch tool.

At its latest policy meeting on May 2-3, the Fed signaled it was open to stopping the most aggressive cycle of rate hikes since the early 1980s in June.

IG analyst Tony Sycamore said:

The dollar also fell on Monday as the debt ceiling agreement raised risk appetite in global markets and reduced the greenback’s safe-haven appeal. A lower dollar helps demand for oil, which is priced in dollars.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies including Russia, known as OPEC+, are due to meet on June 4.

Saudi Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman warned short sellers who bet that oil prices will fall to “be careful,” in a possible sign that OPEC+ may cut production further.

However, statements by Russian oil officials and sources, including Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, indicate that the world’s third largest oil producer is leaning towards leaving production unchanged.

“Traders are left scratching their heads as to what to expect,” said Craig Erlam, chief market analyst at OANDA.

“Maybe Saudi Arabia wants to keep traders on their toes, but making these comments and not following through could be seen as soft and see prices drift lower again,” Erlam said.

Additional reporting by Noah Browning in London, Florence Tan in Singapore, and Mohi Narayan in New Delhi. Editing by David Holmes, Leslie Adler and John Stonestreet

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