December 1, 2022

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Maduro regained ground on the international stage

Nicolás Maduro delivers a speech from the Miraflores Palace in Caracas.Miraflores Palace (via REUTERS)

The return of elected left-wing governments in Latin America, in particular, Gustavo Pedro’s rise to power in Colombia They have given the Venezuelan president, Nicolás Maduro, some international oxygen and a certain political relevance in the region. For the first time in a long time, after years of siege and ignorance, the new situation may be taking hold in Brazil with the return to power of Lula da Silva.

Caracas has made two important points to ease the pressure and reposition itself. One, Maduro was asked to mediate Caracas was the scene of negotiations between the Colombian government and the leader of the National Liberation Army. – its presence is widely documented in the Colombian guerilla country-; and two, The exchange of two nephews of Venezuela’s first lady, Celia Flores, Five executives of the oil company Citco are imprisoned in the United States for drug trafficking in exchange for their American citizenship.

With the political environment surrounding Venezuela, particularly Colombia and independently of the Venezuelan opposition, Maduro’s recovery is indicated in conjunction with the US government, which is fostering a process of negotiations with Chavismo. Meanwhile, on the domestic front, Maduro continues on his path of using a policy of peace with the private sector and opposition currents. Maduro feels capable of defeating the opposition in 2024 if it splits.

It crystallizes powerful pressure Training through Chevron Oil Company To obtain a license that would allow it to expand its operations in Venezuela, at a time when the war in Ukraine necessitated it. Although the Chavista government has said local oil production has reached one million barrels per day, it has not reached 700,000, and the administration needs a boost that, if implemented, could increase output by another 300,000 barrels per day. “On the technology side, deals to expand Chevron’s licenses seem ready,” says economist and energy analyst Orlando Ochoa.

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Meanwhile, in a move unthinkable a few months ago, the 19 countries of the Organization of American States (OAS) proposed to discuss a draft resolution to revoke the mandate held by Venezuela’s interim government. Juan Quitowhose ambassador, Gustavo Torre, did not propose because of scarcity quorum, but it speaks to new interpretations closer to the Maduro government. In 2017, the Venezuelan president withdrew from the OAS, amid an internal political crisis and in the face of international questions about the legitimacy of his administration.

“There is one lobby “A very strong oil company is working hard to make deals with Maduro, not only from Chevron, but also from Repsol, Exxon and Statoil,” says Carmen Beatriz Fernandez, a Venezuelan academic from the Faculty of Communications at the University of Navarra. “The world of 2022 is different from 2019. Maduro was greatly favored by the pandemic, and now the war in Ukraine is helping him. The political connections have changed. There is a growing belief that the policy of maximum pressure on Maduro is not going to work. Here, there is a change in strategy,” he says. Fernández points out that, with some progress, persuasive formulas will now come into play, consolidating pledges in the medium term around clean and verifiable elections in Venezuela.

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Before the announced decision to exchange prisoners between the United States and Maduro, noise had already increased in Venezuela about a possible reunification of political dialogue between Chavismo and the opposition in Mexico. The editions provide an account of some prior agreements in the area of ​​the health crisis, and await Maduro’s approval to resume negotiations, which are in a catalyzed state, a year after their announcement. Chavismo does not want to reopen a political forum that tends to strengthen dialogue with its opponents, while opposition spokesmen remain conflicted.

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Emilio Figueredo, diplomat, professor of international law and director of the Information Portal Analysis, indicating adaptation to the current environment. “I think there is no resignation because Maduro is in power,” he says. “There is some circumstance in this matter. It is important to measure short and medium term outcomes. The growing left in the region avoids a close encounter with Maduro, and I’m talking about Pedro and Gabriel Boric. What they want is to resolve the Venezuela issue. Meanwhile, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken visits Lima and Santiago. In addition, the situation with Maduro’s allies like Cuba and Russia is not stable,” says the diplomat.

While some points on its horizon have been clarified, they weigh minimally on the Maduro government Three Declarations of the United Nations Fact-Finding Commission. They document the country’s social crisis, economic chaos, severe failures of public services, and the torture and repression practiced by Chavismo as a permanent practice.

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