January 31, 2023

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Each NFL playoff team’s chances of winning championship games and the Super Bowl

Top three teams in NFL This season, according to the records, each of them lost three matches this season. And the next best, by record, trio lost 25 percent of the time.

There are no perfect teams in the league as the playoffs start on Saturday, but there are many strong teams. Some that didn’t look that way earlier this season, like Bengals And Jaguar, leaned into their identities and earned their divisions. Others that looked stellar early in the 2022 season, like Cowboys And dolphinsbut bring with them as many questions as they have won.

Here’s a breakdown, by conference, of each team’s chances of winning their conference championship and Super Bowl based on the model they run: the athleteAustin Mock.

AFC playoffs drop

Team

winning conference

Super Bowl win

32.9 percent

16.9 percent

23.7%

13.0 percent

13.4 percent

6.8 percent

11.2 percent

5.7 percent

9.2 percent

4.6 percent

5.6 percent

2.6 percent

4.0 percent

1.4 percent

See MOQ model Kansas City As the team to be defeated in the AFC as they are expected to reach the Super Bowl about a third of the time despite losing outright during the regular season to both buffalo and Cincinnati. the chargers It’s been busted this season, but heading into Jacksonville is a very winnable game. In fact, Mock has them win the AFC title just 2 percent short of the Bengals. This model is not working Lamar Jackson Being 100 percent sure to play in favor crows On the wild tour.

Drop NFC

Team

winning conference

Super Bowl win

31.9 percent

15.4 percent

23.8%

12.3 percent

11.3%

5.7 percent

9.2 percent

4.8 percent

9.0 percent

4.7 percent

7.7 percent

3.3 percent

7.1 percent

2.7 percent

the the Eagles They didn’t let the first round slip through Sunday, and because of that they head into the playoffs as the overwhelming NFC favorite to reach the Super Bowl at 31.9 percent. the 49ers They are the runner-up at 23.8 percent but interestingly, both the fifth-ranked Cowboys and the fourth-ranked Buccaneers have a higher chance of being crowned NFC Champions than the third-ranked Vikings, as the model has Minnesota’s chance of making the Super Bowl only 9.0 percent. The model sees the Vikings as closer to a league average team than a top ten team.

Full field projection

Team

winning conference

Super Bowl win

32.9 percent

16.9 percent

31.9 percent

15.4 percent

23.7%

13.0 percent

23.8%

12.3 percent

13.4 percent

6.8 percent

11.3%

5.7 percent

11.2 percent

5.7 percent

9.2 percent

4.8 percent

9.0 percent

4.7 percent

9.2 percent

4.6 percent

7.7 percent

3.3 percent

7.1 percent

2.7 percent

5.6 percent

2.6 percent

4.0 percent

1.4 percent

(Photo: Jeff Butare/Getty Images)

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