July 24, 2024

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Analysis of US trial results for 2024 (so far)

Analysis of US trial results for 2024 (so far)

2024 US Olympic Trials

Thanks to Barry Revzin for running the numbers.

We’re eight sessions into the 2024 US Olympic Trials, which means we have a wealth of data to comb through between sessions. Before this meeting started, we only had input data, but now there are actual results available to us.

You’ve probably heard superlatives like “fastest primers ever,” but let’s dive into the numbers to see if that’s true or a gross exaggeration.

Who drops, who adds, and who interrupts the trials?

This meeting the It comes together to prepare it, and it acts as a pressure cooker once the athletes get here. It’s not a meet where many swimmers miss time from seed, and the data reflects that.

group Total athletes to improve Improved ratio Making pieces making parts%
everyone 1040 295 28.37% 636 61.15%
men 593 185 31.20% 375 63.24%
slim 447 110 24.61% 261 58.39%
Indiana 80 24 30.00% 51 63.75%
Sandpiper 16 4 25.00% 15 93.75%

Luke Ellis (3:54.33 -> 3:50.79), 400 free

Of all the athletes, only 27.22% decreased their entry time. Liam Bell He has the honor of having the biggest drop (percentage) so far in the match. His 2.26-second drop in the 100 breaststroke moved him from 43rd seed to fourth place.

It’s another bell that tops the standings in women’s events. Lucy Bell She dropped by 1.29 seconds in the 100 fly, raising her position from 72nd to 19th place.

We also divided the data into two other categories to answer some questions we had. Earlier this week, I assumed the home crowd was elevating Indiana’s swimmers to outstanding swimming, and as a group they were above average.

It is also worth noting that the “Indiana” category includes all athletes representing the LSC, not necessarily swimmers who were born and raised in the Hoosier State. For this Chris GiulianoImproved rankings lead here. The Notre Dame-trained swimmer hails from Pennsylvania.

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The addition of the Sandpipers class was something I brought up to Barry half-jokingly, but it would be interesting to see. Again, this only includes athletes who currently represent the Sandpipers, so this row does not include alums Bella Sims Who entered with Florida. Only four Sandpipers have had the best times so far, but the majority Ron AitkenTrained swimmers were exposed to experiments while swimming.

Tracking the number of athletes who have tried out at a meet is an interesting metric to track the level of performance displayed. Some athletes target this meet and only recently made the qualifying time, so it makes sense that we would see some decline when it comes time for the big meet.

Check out the table that breaks it down by event instead:

It happened Total athletes to improve Improved ratio Making pieces making parts%
F400 Versatile 40 6 15.00% 17 42.50%

Audrey Derivaux (4:49.32 -> 4:45.23)

F100 breast 76 14 18.42% 34 44.74%

Kaylyn Gridley (1:07.87 -> 1:06.67)

P100 for free 56 11 19.64% 38 67.86%

Lily Nordmann (55.43 -> 55.03)

P200 for free 50 10 20.00% 36 72.00%

Katie Crum (1:59.26 -> 1:57.91)

M 400 medley 78 18 23.08% 38 48.72%

Levi Sandidge (4:22.85 -> 4:17.61)

P1500 free 37 9 24.32% 24 64.86%

Mila Nikanorov (16:44.60 -> 16:27.05)

M 100 breast 81 21 25.93% 49 60.49%
m 100 again 75 20 26.67% 46 61.33%

David King (55.51 -> 54.67)

F100 Fly 76 23 30.26% 45 59.21%
M 200 fly 54 17 31.48% 34 62.96%

Tommy Breed (2:00.43 -> 1:57.59)

At 100 noon 63 20 31.75% 31 49.21%

Josephine Fuller (59.67 -> 58.79)

M 800 free 52 17 32.69% 39 75.00%

Sean Green (8:07.31 -> 7:56.47)

M 100 free 63 21 33.33% 42 66.67%

Quentin McCarty (49.86 -> 48.95)

200 m for free 54 18 33.33% 38 70.37%
P400 for free 49 17 34.69% 36 73.47%

Mila Nikanorov (4:15.33 -> 4:11.57)

M 200 released 76 27 35.53% 53 69.74%

Gaby Nunziata (2:15.38 -> 2:11.78)

M 400 free 60 26 43.33% 36 60.00%

Luke Ellis (3:54.33 -> 3:50.79)

Not all swimmers in the ‘biggest drop’ category secured a place in the semi-finals or final, which is evidence of the hypothesis that trials are not just about team selection; It’s also about giving the next generation the opportunity to compete with the best in a high-pressure production environment.

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What gets the job done

Finally, let’s take a look at how the qualifying times change for each round. We’re tracking it all the way back to 2012. You can draw your own conclusions in the comments, but I want to highlight the most gruesome stat: how fast it took the Olympic team to get to the 100 butterfly. The second-place time went almost a full second faster, which sounds ridiculous on paper but makes more sense when you remember that there were three generational talents all running at once in that final.

The women’s 400m is an anomaly here. All the other 400m events have gotten faster to make the team, but the 400m seems to have taken a step back.

The men’s and women’s 100 freestyle finals are tonight so we have unbiased data, but it’s interesting to note the difference in the prelims and semifinal times so far. Both events took a big step forward in 16th place, but the women’s event was almost back to 2016 level after the semi-finals. On the other hand, the men’s event was the fastest of the last four quads over the two rounds so far.

Semi-final making times

It happened 2012 2016 2021 2024
F100 Fly 59.87 59.87 59.05 58.73
F400 Versatile 4:43.17 4:42.04 4:42.63 4:45.23
M 200 released 2:13.87 2:14.70 2:13.14 2:12.02
P100 for free 55.38 55.32 55.22 54.72
M 100 free 49.76 49.55 49.07 48.72
200 m for free 1:49.71 1:48.63 1:48.15 1:47.39
At 100 noon 1:02.22 1:01.32 1:01.02 1:00.71
F100 breast 1:09.39 1:08.54 1:09.00 1:08.81
P1500 free nothing nothing 16:16.09 16:25.33
P400 for free 4:10.38 4:10.52 4:10.51 4:09.87
P200 for free 2:00.36 2:00.00 2:00.03 1:59.66
M 100 breast 1:01.80 1:01.41 1:00.81 1:00.80
m 100 again 55.49 55.41 54.52 54.59
M 800 free nothing nothing 7:57.11 7:56.47
M 400 medley 4:19.33 4:15.41 4:17.60 4:17.35
M 200 fly 2:00.03 1:58.70 1:58.37 1:58.37
M 400 free 3:49.89 3:50.52 3:49.49 3:48.63
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Times make finals

It happened 2012 2016 2021 2024
F100 Fly 58.72 58.81 58.21 57.97
M 200 released 2:12.00 2:13.44 2:10.76 2:11.14
P100 for free 54.6 54.07 54.15 54.09
M 100 free 49.03 49.18 48.73 48.11
200 m for free 1:48.09 1:47.84 1:47.00 1:47.00
At 100 noon 1:00.76 1:00.46 1:00.18 59.33
F100 breast 1:07.70 1:07.60 1:07.26 1:07.73
P200 for free 1:58.64 1:58.43 1:58.22 1:57.63
M 100 breast 1:00.83 1:00.30 1:00.36 59.78
m 100 again 54.51 54.63 53.82 53.83
M 200 fly 1:58.45 1:57.10 1:57.08 1:56.73

Olympic team formation times

It happened 2012 2016 2021 2024
F100 Fly 57.57 57.21 56.43 55.52
F400 Versatile 4:34.48 4:36.81 4:33.96 4:35.56
200 m for free 1:46.88 1:47.53 1:46.49 1:46.09
At 100 noon 59.49 59.29 58.6 57.91
F100 breast 1:05.99 1:06.07 1:05.28 1:06.10
P400 for free 4:04.18 4:00.65 4:04.86 4:02.08
P200 for free 1:58.40 1:57.65 1:57.61 1:57.05
M 100 breast 1:00.15 59.26 58.74 59.16
m 100 again 52.86 52.28 52.48 52.72
M 800 free nothing nothing 7:49.94 7:45.19
M 400 medley 4:07.89 4:11.02 4:10.33 4:09.39
M 400 free 3:47.83 3:44.66 3:48.17 3:45.76

What comes next?

There are still nine sessions remaining, including this morning, so stay tuned for more data analysis throughout the week.