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A ceasefire with the ELN can stop the bullets, but not the extortion

A ceasefire with the ELN can stop the bullets, but not the extortion

12:01 AM

The national government and the ELN agreed on guidelines for a bilateral ceasefire, after three rounds of negotiations, a failed attempt at a cease-fire and a near-eradication of disagreements and, once again, rapprochement with the sixty-year-old guerrillas.

The treaty envisages restrictions on wars, ambushes, capture operations and territorial attacks; However, it did not prohibit other ELN activities affecting civilians such as extortion, “revolutionary taxes”, drug trafficking, racketeering, land grabbing and recruitment.

This was apparently communicated after some statements given to the press after the event by the head of the Elena delegation, “Pablo Beltran”.

“The ELN’s financial activities began to be discussed here, but the discussion is not over. It will continue to be discussed, so they did not enter into these protocols. Then, yes,” he said, and in the face of what he called “prevention” of human trafficking for extortion, “if they are not needed.” , they will not be done,” he clarified.

Characteristics of the stop

The historic announcement was made yesterday in Havana (Cuba), where representatives of the two parties concluded the third round of talks. In addition to peace delegates, guarantor countries and international guests, the event was attended by President Gustavo Pedro and Commander-in-Chief of the Vice-Chancellor Eliezer Chamorro Acosta (“Antonio Garcia”).

Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez read a joint statement outlining the terms of the cease-fire, which included national security and an initial duration of six months.

The ceasefire will be implemented in several phases, starting with a period to be listed in the regions (June 9 to July 5), including the creation of a communication channel between the two sides through a representative of the United Nations Secretary-General. Columbia..

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After these checks have been carried out, orders to cease offensive operations will be issued on July 6, a period of indoctrination for the troops.

On July 10, according to the document, a plenary meeting of all members of the dialogue table will approve the fix and stop protocols and compliance verification mechanisms.

On August 3, 2023, the ceasefire will come into full effect for 180 days, with the possibility of extension.

Less bullet, but…

The ELN is active in 13 of Colombia’s departments, but its militancy is worst affected in Arauca, Norte de Santander, Cauca, and southern Soco (see map).

For example, attacks on general forces are expected to decrease in important municipalities such as Tipu, Fordul and Bajo Boudo, where harassment and attacks by snipers are frequent.

One of the concerns among security agencies is the Central Command’s (CCO) ability to align all its armed structures in a ceasefire. Intelligence agents confirm that the Western Front, which intervenes in the south of Soko, and the Eastern Front, which controls Arauca, are potential opponents because of their economic power and self-governance.

They asked Antonio García in Cuba about this, and he replied, “All our fronts are united.”

The acid test will be this six-month period, in which 5,850 members of the party will be able to attest whether the order is being followed.

Another aspect not touched on in the third cycle is the possibility of a cease-fire on Venezuelan territory, where – according to intelligence sources – the guerrillas have used 40% of their operations.

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Thorny conversations

The ceasefire announced by the parties was actually the fourth attempt since the beginning of Gustavo Pedro’s tenure.

Sources close to the dialogue table said that in past cycles, in Caracas and Mexico City, the government tried to convince the other side to silence the guns, but the ELN rejected it.

The Head of State attempted to do so on his own and unilaterally when he announced the ceasefire on his Twitter account on December 31, 2022.

The idea, which appeared to be well-intentioned, was categorically rejected by the ELN, who saw it as an unauthorized imposition on the table, and the incident became the first crisis the peace process had to face.

“Unlike the Farc, it is very difficult to achieve a ceasefire with the ELN because its central command has not undergone major changes over time, and its creators have a very political and old doctrine in which the use of weapons is honorable and legitimate within their revolution,” said a former member of the organization, who said his He asked not to be identified.

Another problem facing the parties was the close proximity of Casa de Narino with organized crime gangs. According to the ELN, the administration will “bring impunity and benefits to big bosses linked to the powerful economic, political and armed sectors, leaving them untouchable,” according to a report released in September.

In fact, yesterday’s announcement is not only proof that many of these differences have been resolved, but given the difficult political moment Petro is going through, it gives the government a lifeline in the face of public opinion.

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The president arrived in Havana ahead of a scandal involving former ambassador to Venezuela, Armando Benedetti, exposed by secret hacks, internal betrayals, a loss of popularity in the election and leaks of dirty money in his presidential campaign. and former CEO Laura Sarabia.

The political background indicates that the “Total Peace” project, which is already making progress with the ELN and Valle de Aburrá gangs, is giving it the political oxygen lost to the breakdown of Pedro’s bench in Congress. Criticisms of his reforms and wrongdoings of his cabinet and family circle.

Until 2025?

In his speech on the island, President Pedro assessed progress on schedule and announced that “on May 25, 2025, the decades-long war between the ELN and the State of Colombia will definitively cease.”

This suggests that talks with the guerrillas, which began in 2022, will take another two years.

In addition to the ceasefire, it was agreed to form a National Participation Committee in the third cycle, in which 30 sectors of society could contribute their ideas to the discussion. In the coming weeks, the protocol for connecting the community will be defined.

The fourth round of talks will be held in Caracas from August 14 to September 4. Among the points to be discussed will be precisely the ELN’s “economic activities” affecting civilians and the possibility of restricting recruitment.