Market research firm, Strategies Unlimited, forecasts what the company describes as “robust growth” for the LED downlight market over the next five years. The company projects that global market will grow by a 28% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) through 2016. The company contends that although unit demand is expected to grow at a 52% CAGR over the period, revenue growth will be moderated by a projected 16% per year decline in average selling price.
The company says that on the supply side the improvements in LED technology, luminaire design, and manufacturing, as well as the continuous decrease in pricing of LED components, will benefit manufacturers of LED downlights. On the demand side Strategies Unlimited claims that the growing awareness about LED lighting and general satisfaction with the quality of products, as well as a steady decrease in pricing of finished products, will continue to fuel increasing market penetration. According to the company, the commercial sector showed the strongest adoption for LED downlights in 2011 – 2012, with retail and hospitality displaying the most activity in Japan, North America, and Europe.
Strategies Unlimited (SU) says that the fastest growth will occur in growing economies as a result of new construction projects and expansion of the retail sector. Between 2011 and 2016, SU projects that unit growth for growing economies will be 167% with 129% growth in revenues. North America and Europe are expected to show revenue growth of 31% and 27%, respectively, and these regions will account for 44% of global revenues in 2016, the company asserts. SU notes that sales through big box retail stores gained momentum between 2011 and 2012. In the future, the company expects demand from consumer channels in North America will show continuing robust growth as prices continue to decline and consumer awareness and acceptance increase.